Will there be a large protest in Lagos before the end of June 2026?
Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if, between June 13 and June 30, 2026 (inclusive), a single anti-government or civil-society protest gathering takes place anywhere within Lagos State, such that BOTH of the following hold: (1) the protest is reported by at least 3 of these outlets — Channels TV, Punch, Premium Times, TheCable, Reuters, BBC, AP; and (2) at least one of those outlets estimates the crowd at 1,000 or more participants, or describes it as 'thousands', 'mass', or 'large'. Otherwise the market resolves NO. Clarifications: the protest must be a public demonstration, march, or rally (online campaigns or strikes with no physical gathering do not count); a pro-government counter-rally does not count toward YES on its own; a multi-day event counts as one qualifying protest; crowd-size disputes resolve in favor of the named credible outlets' reporting, not the participants or authorities; the protest's cause (insecurity, economy, governance, etc.) is irrelevant as long as it is anti-government or civil in nature.
Market details
- Question: Will there be a large protest in Lagos before the end of June 2026?
- Category: politics
- Trading closes: Jun 30, 2026, 11:29 PM UTC
- Resolves: Jul 3, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
- Current price: YES 40¢ · NO 60¢ (out of 100¢)
- Volume: $0 traded
- Traders: 0 unique addresses
- Settlement: USDC on Base L2
- Resolution: Multi-agent AI oracle, automatic
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